GUIDES · BETSLIP DOCTOR
How do absolute pitch movement and movement versus similar pitches differ?
Absolute pitch movement describes the inches of horizontal break and vertical drop on the ball’s path, with gravity included in MLB’s Statcast presentation. Movement versus average asks how that pitch compares with similar pitches, matched by pitch type and a range of velocity, extension, and release point. A slower pitch has more time to move, so a larger raw number is not automatically more movement than comparable pitches. Read both the raw measurement and its comparison reference; neither alone guarantees effectiveness.
For Bettors and cappers learning to read baseball records · Updated
Absolute movement describes the path in inches
MLB presents pitch movement separately as horizontal break and vertical drop. The Statcast movement page says its values include gravity to better align with the pitch’s real-world path. The raw number describes how far the ball moved under that convention; it does not yet say whether the movement is unusual for that kind of pitch.
Movement versus average uses a comparison group
To account for pitches having different flight times, MLB compares a pitch with other MLB pitches of the same type within about two mph of velocity and half a foot of extension and release point. The comparison asks whether its movement is above or below that reference group. The matching frame matters: a curveball should not be read against a fastball baseline, and a value from one convention should not be silently compared with another.
Use the reference frame before calling a pitch unusual
A pitch can have more total drop simply because it traveled more slowly, while dropping less than comparable pitches. Four-seam fastballs also use a special interpretation: more vertical movement versus average means more “rise” relative to peers, not that the ball physically rises against gravity. Check pitch type, definition, and any current leaderboard minimum before drawing a conclusion. BSD does not claim to retrieve or display this Statcast data.
Hypothetical worked example: raw drop and comparison drop
Toy comparison only—not Statcast data. A fictional curveball drops 16 inches. Its comparison group is the same pitch type, within 2 mph of its velocity and within 0.5 feet of its extension and release point; the group’s illustrative average drop is 18 inches. The pitch’s raw drop is still 16 inches, while its drop is 2 inches less than the comparison average. Those numbers describe two reference frames; they do not establish that the pitch is better or predict its result.
Related questions
Does more raw drop always mean more movement than similar pitches?
No. Raw drop depends partly on flight time. The comparison measure uses similar pitch types and physical conditions to add context.
Does a four-seam fastball with positive rise physically move upward?
No. MLB uses “rise” comparatively for a fastball that drops less than similar pitches; gravity still acts on the ball.