GUIDES · BETSLIP DOCTOR
Why can a lower exit-velocity ball travel farther than a harder-hit ball?
Exit Velocity measures how fast the ball leaves the bat, not how far it will travel. Launch angle, park dimensions, wind, elevation and other flight conditions also affect distance. Hit Distance records where a batted ball ends up; Projected Home Run Distance estimates an unobstructed flight for a home run.
For Bettors and cappers learning to read baseball records · Updated
Exit Velocity and Hit Distance answer different questions
Exit Velocity is the ball’s speed immediately after contact, measured in miles per hour. MLB tracks it for batted-ball events, including outs, hits and errors. Hit Distance is the distance from home plate to where the ball lands or ends up, such as on the ground, in the seats, at the wall or in a fielder’s glove.
A faster ball is not automatically a longer-distance ball. The launch path and environment matter: MLB notes that stadium dimensions, climate, wind and elevation affect flight. Keep the speed measurement separate from the endpoint measurement.
Projected Home Run Distance extends a home run’s flight
Projected Home Run Distance is a separate estimate for a home run: it fits the ball’s parabolic arc and projects the remaining path as if walls, seats or other obstructions had not stopped it. It is useful for comparing home runs whose actual endpoints are constrained by different stadium barriers. It is not the measured Hit Distance, and it is not a projection that a future ball will be a home run.
A fictional low ball and airborne home run
Hypothetical comparison under the same invented venue, elevation, weather and wind conditions: Ball A leaves the bat at 105 mph and 8 degrees, then hits the field 185 feet from home plate; its Hit Distance is 185 feet and it is not a home run. Ball B leaves at 98 mph and 28 degrees, clears a 360-foot wall and lands in the seats 385 feet from home; its Hit Distance is 385 feet. Assume, as a separate fictional tracking output, that the unobstructed parabolic estimate for B is 410 feet; that is its Projected Home Run Distance, not the seat endpoint. These stipulated values illustrate the different measurements and are not actual Statcast records or a physical simulation.
Related questions
Is Projected Home Run Distance the same as the ball’s measured landing point?
No. Hit Distance records where the batted ball ends up. Projected Home Run Distance estimates the rest of a home run’s parabolic flight without obstructions.